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第30部分(第2页)

旁白:现在危机已经波及到了美国。一个鲜为人知但很强大的私人投资基金已经到了破产的边缘。

Long Term Capital Management; or LTCM; directly controlled 100 billion of global assets and; indirectly; more than a trillion dollars。

长资公司,或者LTCM,直接控制着一千亿美元的全球资产,间接控制着超过一万亿美元。

JON CORZINE; Co…chairman; Goldman Sachs; 1994…1999: The 90s saw a huge buildup in concentrations that we had never seen on a global scale。 Maybe we had way back in history。 Maybe the Romans had financial institutions that were disproportionately large to the overall activity of the world that they operated in; but LTCM was a specific type of hedge fund。 They were involved whether it was the Singapore exchange; the Tokyo stock exchange; the London stock exchange; the New York。 There was no market that they werent 'involved in' …… maybe the largest player; or close to the largest player。

JON CORNINE,高盛公司的联合主席,1994…1999:九十年代见证了我们从没看到过的全球范围的集中。也许在历史上很早期我们有过。也许罗马帝国曾经有过与整个世界的活动都不成比例的特大的金融机构,但是长资公司是一种特别的对冲基金。他们介入无论是新加坡股票交易所,东京股票交易所,伦敦股票交易所,还是纽约股票交易所等各个交易所。没有哪一个市场他们没有(介入)…… 他们可能是最大的或接近最大的玩家。

NARRATOR: By September 1998; LTCMs losses were spiraling out of control。 Contagion had arrived on Wall Street。 Incredibly; the failure of this single investment fund threatened the entire global economy。

旁白:到了1998年9月,长资公司的亏损螺旋上升至失去控制。危机的影响来到了华尔街。令人难以置信的是,就这么一个单独的投资基金的失败竟然威胁到了整个全球经济。

DANIEL YERGIN: If LTCM went down; it would be just the gears; the machine just stopping; the economy not working。 And of course its not just whats on the balance sheet of banks and so forth; but that would translate into people not working; businesses not operating; small businesses not being able to get their capital they need。 And this in a global economy。 It was almost inconceivable to see what the picture was; but it was sort of just not working; and people just not working。

DANIEL YERGIN:如果长资公司跨掉了,那就是传动装置的问题,是机器停止工作,经济不再发展。当然,这不仅仅是摆在银行等的收支平衡表上的,而是表现为人们不能工作,企业不能开工,小型企业得不到它们所需的资金。而这在一个全球性的经济中,简直不敢想象这样的场景,但它就是那种停滞,人们无工可做。

NARRATOR: The New York Federal Reserve summoned representatives of major ; then at Goldman Sachs; was among them。

旁白:纽约联邦储备银行召集美国和欧洲的主要银行代表参加一个紧急会议。JON CORZINE,当时任职于高盛公司,就是与会者之一。

JON CORZINE: The real problem of Long Term Capital was nobody really understood all the downsides。 All one knew was it was going to be extraordinarily dangerous to enter into that。 And everybody; I think; understood the Feds concern that that had real implications to the real economy。

JON CORZINE:长资公司的真正问题是没有人真正懂得所有的市场下挫的情况。每个人只知道要进入这个市场是极其危险的。每个人,我认为,都理解联邦储备的担心, 即它对实际的经济有着实际的寓意。

NARRATOR: Since LTCM was a private fund; the government could not impose a solution。 The fate of the global economy was in the hands of these bankers。

旁白:由于长资公司是一个私人基金,政府无法对它实行强制的解决办法。全球经济的命运就这样被掌握在这些银行家的手里。

WILLIAM McDONOUGH: The head of a securities firm or a bank is not paid to be a patriot。 He or she is paid to serve the best interests of the shareholders; so the most that one could do in a position like mine is to say the public interest may well be served by Long Term Capital Management not failing; but there is no public…sector money to solve the problem。 The taxpayer is not going to do this。 You folks have to decide whether its in your interest to do it。

WILLIAM McDONOUGH:一个证券公司或是一家银行的头儿要做爱国者是没有酬劳的。但他或她为他们的股东的利益服务是有酬劳的,所以,处在我这样的位置上的人最多可以做的就是去说,公众的利益也许可以通过长资公司的不失败来得到维护。但是,我们没有公共部门的资金去解决这个问题。纳税人是不会这么做的。你们这些人不得不决定这么做是否符合你们的利益。

NARRATOR: The banks agreed to put up their own money to rescue LTCM。 Wall Street had averted disaster; but the global crisis had one final chapter to go。

旁白:那些银行同意用它们自己的资金来拯救长资公司。华尔街逃过一劫,但是,这一全球危机还没有走到尽头。

Onscreen caption: Rio de Janeiro; Brazil; December 1998

字幕:里约热内卢,巴西,1998年12月

What had started in Asia now reached Brazil; the eighth largest economy in the world。 But this time; a loan package was put in place early。 Brazils government cut spending and enacted reforms。

在亚洲开始的事情现在到了巴西,世界第八大经济体。但是,这一次,较早地安排了一个贷款计划。巴西政府削减了开支并实施了改革。

It worked。 Brazils problems were contained。 Global financial markets gradually returned to normal。

这一切奏效了。巴西的问题被遏制住了。全球金融市场逐渐恢复了正常。

ROBERT RUBIN: Well; and its not clear when you would say it ended; but what happened was that the countries that actually took ownership of reform …… Korea; Thailand; the Philippines; Brazil …… began to reestablish stability in their financial markets; and their economies started to recover。 And after a while there came a point we began to feel; ";Well; maybe were past the crisis。"; Then a little bit past that we said; ";You know; it does look like we are past the crisis。"; And finally we got to the point where we said; ";Well; we think this is over。";

。罗伯特。鲁宾:呃,你什么时候会说它结束了并不清楚,但是事实是那些真正实施改革的国家 – 韩国,泰国,菲律宾,巴西 – 开始在它们的金融市场上重建稳定,而且,它们的经济也开始复苏。过了一段时间我们就开始感觉到我们到了这样一个关头:“也许我们已经度过了这次危机。”再过一段时间,我们说:“你知道,看上去我们确实度过了难关。”然后,最终我们到了我们说:“我们认为这一切已经过去了。”的时候。

NARRATOR: The world economy had survived the first crisis of the globalization era; but millions of ordinary people had paid the price。

旁白:世界经济熬过了全球化时代的第一次危机,但是,成百万的普通人为此付出了代价。

ANAND PANYARACHUN: And thats the unfortunate part of so…called globalization; because such negative effects can be totally responsible; can e very fast。 It takes decades for a country to grow up to a certain level; and all of a sudd

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